WILL THE EAGLE SOAR?
By Joe Kristufek HorseplayerNOW.com |
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Restricted to newly turned 4-year-olds, the Strub Stakes often features horses who braved the Triple Crown trail the year before. The last Kentucky Derby winner to return the following year and take the Strub was Silver Charm in 1998.
Keys to the Race of the Week:
Field Depth: Of the eight Strub horses, only BALLADRY does not have a stakes score on their resume. JAYCITO, PRAYER FOR RELIEF, ULTIMATE EAGLE and TAPIZAR - are graded winners.
Pace: TAPIZAR and the lawnmower ULTIMATE EAGLE are both free-running types, but will the latter’s early hoof transfer to the dirt? PRAYER FOR RELIEF owns tactical speed, and he may find himself in the catbird’s seat. The other five are late kickers.
Our Eyes: Thought of as a serious Triple Crown contender one year ago, TAPIZAR suffered a chipped knee in the Lewis, and wouldn’t be heard from for eight months. The talent is still there, but he’s still hasn’t learned to ration his speed, and that lack of discipline is more easily exposed over longer distances. He proved much the best in the San Fernando, and over a dirt track that is kind to front-runners to begin with, he may have to beat himself in order to lose here.
ULTIMATE EAGLE is the wild card. He’s done all of his work on synthetics and turf, and he even trains at Hollywood. The pedigree goes both ways. His sire, Mizzen Mast, won this race in 2002, and his mom won on turf, fast dirt and slop during her solid career. On the plus side, he does own a win over ten furlongs, so if form transfers, Saturday’s distance shouldn’t be an issue. PRAYER FOR RELIEF is a nice horse, but he did cherry pick some soft stakes late in his sophomore season.
JAYCITO has run once in the last 11 months, but the recent works hint that he might fire big off the bench. BALLADRY is in the best form of his career, and he would stand to benefit if the pace is smoking hot. INDIAN WINTER has some ability, Rosario stays, and he adds blinkers, but perhaps he’s distance challenged?.
Betting the Race of the Week:
Most Certain Exotics Contender: All signs to TAPIZAR in this category. He’s speedy and beat down many of these earlier in the San Fernando.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender: What kind of price will I get on ULTIMATE EAGLE? I like him, but I’d like him a lot better at a square price. He could be second, third, fourth or even fifth choice? I also like the chalky TAPIZAR. .
Sending it in ($100 bankroll): On a $1 trifecta ticket, let’s key that duo of ULTIMATE EAGLE and TAPIZAR on top, adding to them to the second slot along with JAYCITO, PRAYER FOR RELIEF, INDIAN WINTER and BALLADRY with all for third (2 x 5 x 6 = $60); $10 exacta box ULTIMATE EAGLE and TAPIZAR ($20); and $20 to win on ULTIMATE EAGLE.
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