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Selections and analysis provided exclusively by Horse Player NOW 'Buzz'
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WASHINGTON PARK HCP
Saturday, Sept 4, 2010 - Arlington Park
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CALIFORNIA 'BEAT' DOWN? By Joe Kristufek, HorseplayerNOW.com |
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A field counting six males and one female are slated to enter the starting gate for Saturday’s G3 Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park. Jockey E. T. Baird, who stole last year’s renewal aboard GRAN ESTRENO, was fired from the mount following the gelding’s most recent run which resulted in a troubled third place finish on turf. Baird also won the previous running aboard the Wayne Catalano trained Lewis Michael.
Keys to the Race of the Week:
Field Depth: The class of the race is 2-1 morning line favorite GIANT OAK, but 19 races into his career, the 4-year-old Illinois-bred son of Giant’s Causeway is still trying to find his niche. He’s won on turf and Poly, but some of his very best races have come on dirt. Defending champion GRAN ESTRENO won his first four starts over the Arlington Poly, but he finished third behind fellow Washington Park contender COUNTRY FLAVOR in the G3 Hanshin in May. California raider ELUSIVE BEAT only has a maiden win on his resume, BUT he’s the up and comer in the field. He’s run big races at Gulfstream, Keeneland, Belmont, Woodbine and Del Mar this year this year, and invades with a purpose for top trainer John Sadler. MAD FLATTER steps back up in class off a confidence boosting wire job in a second-level allowance. If allowed to dictate terms, he could prove tough to catch.
Pace: MAD FLATTER is the undisputed speed here. GRAN ESTRENO won last year’s race on the lead, but he inherited it and stole the show. COUNTRY FLAVOR is fast enough to hold the rail position and ride the pocket trip.
Our Eyes: COUNTRY FLAVOR upset the G3 Hanshin at 21-1, and he’s been sitting around waiting for this race ever since. GRAN ESTRENO is the same horse he was last year, he just hasn’t been nearly as fortunate. ELUSIVE BEAT lacks the class of most of these, but he’s also a horse with upside. He’s suffered some tough losses of late, but not for lack of trying. MAD FLATTER got a huge confidence boost in his last. He wired the field, and the effort was visually impressive. He could get VERY brave on the front end. GIANT OAK scratched out of an Aug. 21 turf race (GRAN ESTRENO was a troubled third) in favor of this spot. He’s the class of the field, but do you trust him as the favorite? COOLCULLEN TIMES appears to be overmatched and the mare CURE FOR SALE doesn’t belong here.
Betting the Race of the Week:
Most Certain Exotics Contender: He’s tough to trust on the win end, but GIANT OAK is the class of the field, and the distance suits.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender: MAD FLATTER has an opportunity to dictate terms on the front end.
Sending It In ($100 bankroll): The Cali raider ELUSIVE BEAT may have the most upside, and the price should be fair enough. COUNTRY FLAVOR, GRAN ESTRENO, the speedy MAD FLATTER and likely favorite GIANT OAK all rate a fairly equal chance. Let’s bet $15 Exactas keying ELUSIVE BEAT over that quartet ($60) and turn it around for $5 ($20). With the other $20, let’s key GIANT OAK second under COUNTRY FLAVOR, GRAN ESTRENO, ELUSIVE BEAT and MAD FLATTER ($20). |
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