Friday Sep 3, 2010 



HOW THE KEY HANDICAPPING VARIABLES TRANSLATE TO THE SHORTLINERS
By Jeremy Plonk,
Horseplayerpro.com Analyst and former AQHA Official Equibase Chart-Caller

SPEED 

         Take everything you knew about speed handicapping in Thoroughbred races and multiply that by infinity. That's how important the need for speed is in the Q game.  While it may seem simplistic to pare your analysis down to a singular variable, trust me when I say this: there is NO better place to start. Victory goes to the most fleet with the cleanest trip. Familiarizing yourself with official Speed Index ratings for each track rounds the learning curve quite easily. Click here for more on the Speed Index.
     

SURFACE

   Good, old-fashioned dirt. No turf or synthetic surfaces to worry about here. Some horses exhibit more of a fondness for a particular track than another, keeping the "horses for courses" angle alive and well. That can be misleading, however. For example, some horses may relish the racing at Ruidoso Downs or Arapahoe Park because they adapt better to the high altitude; or at Los Al because they handle racing under the lights when others do not. 
     

TRIP

   Perhaps even moreso than pure speed, a clean trip is the most important element in Q handicapping. But predicting trouble in a race can require a crystal ball. Horses with continual problem comments at the starting gate should be steered away from; sometimes you can use these "bad actors" in your handicapping to eliminate horses who will be breaking immediately next to them. Just as with Thoroughbred handicapping, an occasional trouble line can be used to give a contender an excuse for a poor performance and create an overlay price situation. 
     

DISTANCE

   Just as in Thoroughbred handicapping, each horse must be assessed by his or her ability to "get" the distance in each race. While it may not seem like much, there's a cavern between 330 yards and 440 yards that swallows up many Q runners. Slow breakers aren't for the 250-yard set; pop-and-stop types aren't recommended as the distances extend. Use your proven instincts in reading the past performances and you'll easily identify the best distances for each runner. 
     

TRAINING

   Pretty much forget everything you apply to a Thoroughbred's training regimen when handicapping veteran Qs. Workouts are few and far between, and most often are maintenance drills where the clock is irrelevant. The workouts are critical barometers, however, when evaluating debuting horses (especially 2-year-olds). Many are held in tandem with one or more runners, and some tracks even require "training races" in which raceday conditions are simulated.
     

CLASS

   While many handicappers would argue that class is atop the list of variables (or very close) when evaluating a Thoroughbred race, the company a Quarter Horse keeps falls far down the priority totem pole. Fast horses regularly rise from claiming to allowance races (or allowance to stakes) and find success. Meanwhile, slow horses commonly drop from a higher level to a lower without making an impact. Simply put, speed trumps class nearly every time in the shortline scene.  And with a wide array of racinos now offering slots-infused purses at AQHA racing venues, it's dangerous to over-emphasize a horse's class based on pure earnings or claiming prices.
     
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